Investment markets have rebounded so far in 2023, after a poor 2022. As we entered 2023, a fed induced recession was the big market worry. Whilst it remains to be seen whether the ‘goldilocks scenario’ of a soft landing in the US materialises, the market is now pricing in several rate cuts in the US later this year and through into 2024. The ECB are also close to peak rate level but are unlikely to cut as quickly as the Fed (who moved both quicker and stronger).
As inflation trends lower in the US (albeit still ‘sticky’) the market will continue to look to inflation prints and jobs data for insights into how the Fed will move during the summer. With that in mind, the weekly jobless claims and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday 2nd June will garner the attention of market participants. Finally, whilst the US debt ceiling impasse is not without risks, history tells us that a deal tends to get done. Sentiment towards risk assets overall continues to be cautious, which serves as a positive contrarian indicator. Across multi-asset funds, Zurich remains positively positioned towards equities.
As always, if you wish to discuss anything in further detail, please do get in touch.