Hello,

 

The ECB raised rates last week (more info below) and are now at the highest level since the inception of the Euro at the turn of the century. To state the obvious, this represents a very different monetary backdrop to the one that was experienced since the financial crisis right through to 2022. The market had to contend with several ‘taper tantrums’ during that period (most notably in 2013 and Q4 2018) but rates are now firmly in positive territory across developed markets, and a negative interest rate environment is starting to feel like a distant memory. Even the ultra-loose Bank of Japan have conceded and moved to tighten policy.

 

 We have talked several times in recent years regarding the concept of ‘inflection points’ and the last 18 months are likely to be considered as a pivotal one in years to come. The impact on markets continues to unfold. Narratives such as higher mortgage rates, the depletion of excess savings in some countries – and the increase in others, the return of positively yielding bonds, the reduction of stock buybacks continue to inform our thinking and positioning here at Zurich.

 

As always, if you wish to discuss anything in further detail, please do get in touch.

 

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