Global stock markets kicked off 2023 in optimistic fashion last week, as a string of data points suggested we could have the ‘goldilocks’ scenario of a soft landing for inflation. More information below on the relevant points, including Friday’s jobs report. However, it is important to tread carefully as we have been here before – most notably in August last year. In any case, this week’s US CPI inflation print will provide some further colour. However, as we will be discussing at tomorrow’s Investment Outlook Webinar, medium term inflation expectations hold the key in whether we see a ‘pivot’ from central banks.
The resilience of company earnings in the face of a slowing economy will also be a key input into both the direction and magnitude of equity returns in the year ahead. With that in mind we look to some of the major US financial’s on Friday, where they continue the tradition of kicking off the latest quarterly earnings results. The market will pay close attention to not only the backward-looking results from Q4 2022, but also the forward-looking guidance from company management.
As always, if you wish to discuss anything in this newsletter in further detail, please do get in touch.