Friday marked the 1st anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and looking through the somewhat narrow lens of economics and markets, it’s worth taking stock of the impact of the war over the last 12 months.
In terms of some headline numbers:
- Global equities are a fraction higher
- Eurozone Sovereign bonds are down over 20%
- European gas prices are lower, and down 85% from their peak
- Soft commodities are up about 6%, but Wheat (a large Ukrainian export) is now lower
- And the Russian Rouble has strengthened against both the Dollar and the Euro
Underlying the headline numbers, the impact of policy interventions has had a profound effect (e.g., Rouble strength, European gas prices). As always, market participants must delve a litter deeper for the full story. One constant over the last year has been the spectre of inflation, and indeed economic data last week (more info below) suggests it will continue to loom large for the next year also.
As always, if you wish to discuss anything in further detail, please do get in touch.